Dec. polls: New survey projects runoff

A new survey has projected that next week’s presidential and Parliamentary polls will go into a second round.

According to the research by Governance Research Bureau, non of the two leading parties can secure enough votes to win at ago.

“Based on its analysis of EC certified results since 1992 and the 2020 voters register, the Bureau estimates that the NPP’s Nana Akufo Addo will poll 49.19 per cent (8,389,273 votes) with NDC’s John Mahama taking 48.27 per cent (8,233,881 votes) while the Others make do with 2.54 per cent (433,257 votes).

“Statistical tool used for the prediction was the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) whose dependent variable is the percentage of votes likely to be obtained by the parties with the independent variables being the Constituency and Parties.  The standard errors that emerged were 0.76 per cent of the percentage of votes that NPP obtained, 0.75 per cent for NDC and 0.32 per cent for the Other parties.  A 95 per cent confidence interval estimate for the percentage of votes for the NPP has a lower limit of 47.69 per cent (8,134,646 votes) and upper limit of 50.68 per cent (8,646,900 votes),” the survey said.

It stressed: “The NDC has a lower limit of 46.80 per cent (7,983,123 votes) and upper limit of 49.74 per cent (8,484,639 votes) while the Other parties have a lower limit of 1.92 per cent (326,964 votes) and an upper limit of 3.16 per cent (539,550 votes)”.

Below are other details of the survey

In the parliamentary elections, the Governance Research Bureau predicts that the NPP will win 107 seats with the NDC taking 112 while 56 can go either way according to the model.

The 56 constituencies are the following: Bono: Tain. Bono East: Nkoranza South and Pru West.

Central: Agona East, Agona West, Ajumako Enyan Essiam, Asikuma Odoben Brakwa, Awutu Senya West, Cape Coast North, Effutu, Gomoa East, Gomoa West, KEEA, Mfantseman and Twifu Ati Morkwa.

Eastern: Akwatia, Abirem North and Suhum.

Greater Accra: Ablekuma Central, Ablekuma South, Bortianor Ingleshie, Korle Klottey, Krowor, Ledzokuku, Madina and Okaikwei North. Northern: Bimbilla, Kpandai, Mion, Tatale Sanguli, Wulensi and Yendi.

North East: Bunkpurugu, Chereponi, Nalerigu, Walewale.

Savannah: Salaga South. Oti: Akan, Krachi West, Krachi Nchumuru, Nkwanta North. Upper East: Builsa South, Navrongo Central, Talensi, Tempane and Zebilla. Upper West: Sissala East and Sissala West. Western: Ellembelle, Evalue Gwira, Jomoro, Mpohor, Mpohor Wassa East, Prestea Huni Valley, Shama and Tarkwa-Nsuaem.

Meanwhile, two surveys conducted by pollster Ben Eophson and the political science department of the University of Ghana have projected victory for incumbent Nana Akufo-Addo ahead of the polls.

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